False Consensus Effect

Individuals frequently overestimate how much others share their beliefs, values, and behaviors. This implies that people often project their personal attitudes and ideas onto others, assuming they are more common or widespread than they actually are. "Telling people that a new norm is emerging... can create a self-fulfilling prophecy" — Nudge

#judgment

  1. Ross, L., Greene, D., & House, P. (1977). The false consensus effect: An egocentric bias in social perception and attribution processes. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 13(3), 279–301. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1031(77)90049-X
  2. Good, H. (2023, February 7). What is the false consensus effect. Cognitive Biases. Retrieved from https://dovetail.com/research/false-consensus-effect/
  3. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science, New Series, 185(4157), 1124-1131.
  4. Festinger, L. (1954). A Theory of Social Comparison Processes. Sage Journals, 7(2). https://doi.org/10.1177/001872675400700202
  5. Steele, C. M. (2008). The Psychology of Self-Affirmation: Sustaining the Integrity of the Self. Science Direct.  https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2601(08)60229-4
  6. Moore, P. (2014, August 22). Poll Results: Ice Bucket Challenge. YouGov/US. https://today.yougov.com/entertainment/articles/10183-poll-results-ice-bucket-challenge