Hard-Easy Effect

We incorrectly predict our ability to complete tasks depending on their level of difficulty. It suggests that we are overly confident in how successful we will be at hard tasks and under-confident about how successful we will be at easy ones. "Experts who make a living 'commenting or offering advice on political and economic trends' were not 'better than journalists or attentive readers of the New York Times in 'reading' emerging situations."

#prediction

Related studies:

1. Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. (2008). The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological Review, 115(2), 502-517. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.115.2.502
2. Skala, D. (2008). Overconfidence in Psychology and Finance – an Interdisciplinary Literature Review. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 33-50. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26386/
3. Suantak, L., Bolger, F., & Ferrell, W. R. (1996). The hard–easy effect in subjective probability calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67(2), 201-221. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1996.0074
4. Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B. (1977). Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20(2), 159-183. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(77)90001-0

Related to:

• Planning Fallacy