Impact Bias, Anticipated Utility, Affective Forecasting

Our tendency to overestimate the intensity and duration of our emotional reactions to future circumstances. This occurs when we incorrectly predict how severely an event will impact our emotional state, imagining a stronger and more lasting emotional impact than we actually experience.

#prediction

  1. Wilson, T. D. & Gilbert, D. T. (2005). Affective Forecasting: Knowing What to Want. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 14(3), 131-134. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0963-7214.2005.00355.x
  2. Pedersen, T. (2009). Affective Forecasting: Predicting Future Satisfaction with Public Transport_._ Licentiate dissertation, Karlstad University. Retrieved Nov 29, 2023 from https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-4868
  3. Gilbert, Daniel T.; Pinel, Elizabeth C.; Wilson, Timothy D.; Blumberg, Stephen J.; Wheatley, Thalia P. (1998). Immune neglect: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75(3): 617-638. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.75.3.617
  4. Wilson, T. D., Meyers, J., & Gilbert, D. T. (2003). “How Happy Was I, Anyway?” A Retrospective Impact Bias. Social Cognition, 21(6), 421–446. https://doi.org/10.1521/soco.21.6.421.28688
  5. Miloyan, Beyon & Suddendorf, Thomas. (2015) Feelings of the future. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 19(4), 196-200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2015.01.008
  6. Wilson, T. D., Wheatley, T., Meyers, J. M., Gilbert, D. T., & Axsom, D. (2000). Focalism: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78(5), 821–836. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.78.5.821
  7. Morewedge, C. K., Gilbert, D. T., & Wilson, T. D. (2005). The Least Likely of Times: How Remembering the Past Biases Forecasts of the Future. Psychological Science, 16(8), 626-630. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2005.01585.x
  8. Ayton, Peter, Pott, Alice, & Elwakili, Najat (2007) Affective forecasting: Why can't people predict their emotions? Thinking & Reasoning, 13:1, 62-80, https://doi.org/10.1080/13546780600872726