Normalcy Bias

Our tendency to underestimate the possibility of disaster and believe that life will continue as normal, even in the face of significant threats or crises.

#prediction

  1. Office of the City Auditor. (2021). Disaster Preparedness: The City Was Unprepared to Respond to Winter Storm Uri. City of Austin. https://www.austintexas.gov/sites/default/files/files/Auditor/Audit_Reports/Disaster_Preparedness_November_2021.pdf

  2. Chong, C. (2015, July 17). _Blockbuster’s CEO once passed up a chance to buy Netflix for only $50 million._Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/blockbuster-ceo-passed-up-chance-to-buy-netflix-for-50-million-2015-7?r=MX&IR=T

  3. Saad, L. (2023, September 11). More U.S. Workers Fear Technology Making Their Jobs Obsolete. Gallup. https://news.gallup.com/poll/510551/workers-fear-technology-making-jobs-obsolete.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

  4. Candelon, F., Krayer, L., Rajendran, S., & Zuluaga Martínez, D. (2023, September 21). How People Can Create—and Destroy—Value with Generative AI. Boston Consulting Group. https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/how-people-create-and-destroy-value-with-gen-ai

  5. Drabek, T. E. (2002). Disaster Warning and Evacuation Responses by Private Business Employees.Disasters, 25(1), pp. 76–94.

  6. Ripley, A. (2005, April 25). How to Get Out Alive. TIME. https://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1053663-6,00.html

  7. Soll, J. B., Milkman, K. L., & Payne, J. W. (2015). A User’s Guide to Debiasing. In G. Keren & G. Wu (Eds.), The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgement and Decision Making, II, (pp. 924–951). Wiley-Blackwell.

  8. McColl, K. et al. (2022). Are People Optimistically Biased about the Risk of COVID-19 Infection? Lessons from the First Wave of the Pandemic in Europe. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(1), 436. DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19010436