Optimism Bias

Our tendency to overestimate our likelihood of experiencing positive events and underestimate our likelihood of experiencing negative events. In general, most people skew towards expressing an optimism bias (vs. a pessimism bias). For example, the majority of people expect to live longer and be healthier than others.

#prediction

  1. Sharot, T. (2011). The optimism bias. Current Biology, 21(23), R941–R945. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2011.10.030
  2. Pahl, S., Sheppard, S., Boomsma, C., & Groves, C. (2014). Perceptions of time in relation to climate change. WIREs Climate Change, 5(3), 375–388. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.272
  3. Heifetz, A., & Spiegel, Y. (2000). On the Evolutionary Emergence of Optimism (SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 247355). Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.247355
  4. Strunk, D. R., Lopez, H., & DeRubeis, R. J. (2006). Depressive symptoms are associated with unrealistic negative predictions of future life events. Behaviour Research and Therapy, 44(6), 861–882. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.brat.2005.07.001
  5. Kahneman, D. (2013). Thinking, Fast and Slow (1st Edition). Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
  6. Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39(5), 806–820. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.39.5.806
  7. Chalmers, I., & Matthews, R. (2006). What are the implications of optimism bias in clinical research? The Lancet, 367(9509), 449–450. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68153-1
  8. Seaward, H. G. W., & Kemp, S. (2000). Optimism bias and student debt. New Zealand Journal of Psychology; Christchurch, 29(1), 17.
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