Planning Fallacy

Our tendency to underestimate the amount of time it will take to complete a task, as well as the costs and risks associated with that task—even if it contradicts our experiences.

#prediction

  1. Ackerman, C. E. (2019, April 7). Pollyanna principle: The psychology of positivity bias. PositivePsychology.com. https://positivepsychology.com/pollyanna-principle/
  2. Hoorens V. (2014) Positivity Bias. In: Michalos A.C. (eds) Encyclopedia of Quality of Life and Well-Being Research. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0753-5
  3. Lovallo, D., & Kahneman, D. (2003, July). Delusions of success: How optimism undermines executives’ decisions. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2003/07/delusions-of-success-how-optimism-undermines-executives-decisions
  4. Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (1994). Exploring the “planning fallacy”: Why people underestimate their task completion times. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67(3), 366-381. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.67.3.366
  5. Kahneman, Daniel; Tversky, Amos (1977). “Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures” (PDF). Decision Research Technical Report PTR-1042-77-6. In Kahneman, Daniel; Tversky, Amos (1982). “Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures”. In Kahneman, Daniel; Slovic, Paul; Tversky, Amos (eds.). Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science. 185. pp. 414–421.
  6. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Judgment under Uncertainty, 3-20. https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511809477.002
  7. Koole, S., & Van’t Spijker, M. (2000). Overcoming the planning fallacy through willpower: Effects of implementation intentions on actual and predicted task-completion times. European Journal of Social Psychology, 30(6), 873-888. https://doi.org/10.1002/1099-0992(200011/12)30:6<873::aid-ejsp22>3.0.co;2-u
  8. Forsyth, D. K., & Burt, C. D. (2008). Allocating time to future tasks: The effect of task segmentation on planning fallacy bias. Memory & Cognition, 36(4), 791-798. https://doi.org/10.3758/mc.36.4.791
  9. Construction begins. (n.d.). Sydney Opera House. https://www.sydneyoperahouse.com/our-story/sydney-opera-house-history/construction-begins.html
  10. Lavallé, O. (2008, March 6). Canadian Pacific railway. The Canadian Encyclopedia. https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/canadian-pacific-railway
  11. Optimism bias. (2019, August 22). The Decision Lab. https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/optimism-bias/
  12. Dunning–Kruger effect. (2020, July 22). The Decision Lab. https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/dunning-kruger-effect/
  13. Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (2002). Inside the planning fallacy: The causes and consequences of optimistic time predictions. Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment, 250-270.
  14. Yamini, S., & Marathe, R. R. (2018). Mathematical model to mitigate planning fallacy and to determine realistic delivery time. IIMB Management Review, 30(3), 242–257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iimb.2018.05.003