Dialectic Bootstrapping

Useful for:

• Occasion Noise
• Base Rate Fallacy

Approach

"First. assume that your first estimate is off the mark. Second, think about a few reasons why that could be. Which assumptions and considerations could have been wrong? Third, what do these new considerations imply? Was the first estimate too high or too low? Fourth, based on this new perspective, make a second, alternative estimate" then average the two.

Referenced in:

• Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment by Kahneman, Sibony, and Sunstein