Mediating Assessments Protocol

Useful for:

• Level Noise
• Bandwagon Effect, Informational Cascade

Approach

Structured interviews produce better results than unstructured ones.

1. Decide in advance on a list of assessments of different aspects of a decision.
2. Assign different analysts to each assessment.
3. Discuss each assessment separately, one by one. This maximizes the value of information by keeping the dimensions of the evaluation independent of each other.
4. Whenever possible, use The Outside View (defined by base rates).
5. Make evaluations as comparative as possible, because relative judgments are better than absolute ones. Be transparent about the level of confidence in each assessment.
6. Delay intuition, but don't ban it.

Referenced in:

• Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment by Kahneman, Sibony, and Sunstein