Mediating Assessments Protocol
Useful for:
Approach
Structured interviews produce better results than unstructured ones.
- Decide in advance on a list of assessments of different aspects of a decision.
- Assign different analysts to each assessment.
- Discuss each assessment separately, one by one. This maximizes the value of information by keeping the dimensions of the evaluation independent of each other.
- Whenever possible, use The Outside View (defined by base rates).
- Make evaluations as comparative as possible, because relative judgments are better than absolute ones. Be transparent about the level of confidence in each assessment.
- Delay intuition, but don't ban it.
Referenced in:
- Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment by Kahneman, Sibony, and Sunstein